Global Silver Deficit and COMEX Inventory Depletion

In 2025, the COMEX silver market faced what many analysts called a “physical vault drain emergency.” While total annual delivery figures are typically finalized in late January, the data from the final quarter of 2025 shows a massive surge in physical demand that nearly broke the exchange’s delivery mechanism.

The most critical delivery data from the end of 2025 includes:

Global Silver Deficit and COMEX Inventory Depletion

1. The December “Delivery Shock”

The final month of 2025 saw an unprecedented decoupling between “paper” contracts and physical metal:

• Massive Requests: In December alone, approximately 65 million ounces (12,946 contracts) were requested for physical delivery.

• Cash Settlements: Because the physical metal was not readily available in “Registered” vaults, an estimated 95% of these delivery requests were forced to settle in cash rather than physical silver.

• The November Block: On November 30, a single block request for 36.65 million ounces was submitted. COMEX was only able to physically deliver 2.57 million ounces, settling the remaining 93% in cash at a premium of $65 million.

2. Inventory Depletion

The physical drain was driven largely by an arbitrage play where banks moved silver from New York to London to cover even more acute shortages there:

• Vault Outflows: Roughly 29 million ounces were physically removed from COMEX warehouses in just the first two weeks of October to be shipped to London.

• Registered vs. Eligible: By late 2025, COMEX “Registered” silver (metal specifically available for delivery) plummeted by over 60%, leaving only about 127 million ounces available to back the massive volume of paper contracts.

3. Market Deficit Context

The 2025 delivery crunch was the result of the fifth consecutive year of global supply deficits:

• Global Deficit: The estimated physical silver deficit for 2025 reached 230 million ounces.

• Industrial Demand: Solar and EV manufacturing consumed a record portion of the supply, leaving very little “free-float” silver for exchange deliveries.

Summary Table: Late 2025 Delivery Stress

While silver reached a staggering intra-day peak of $82.59 on December 28th, the market’s true strength was seen on December 30th, when prices surged back to a record $77.37 despite extreme exchange intervention and margin hikes.

In the context of the COMEX delivery crisis, the $82.59 spike was the “breaking point” that forced the exchange to hike margin requirements, which caused the temporary dip. The $77.37 price on the 30th is significant because it proved that the “dip” was bought up instantly by investors who preferred the metal over cash.

Global Silver Deficit and COMEX Inventory Depletion

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